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Introduction to CA ElectionsOn this page you will find an account of how the elections are to work, with links to the website of the Election Commission and other useful resources. Most people who are aware that there is to be an election from a Constituent Assembly will have heard that the system for the election will be "mixed" - but perhaps they do not all understand how it will work. This is an attempt to explain it simply. This explanation is based on the Interim Constitution and the Election Law. It is revised at a time (November 1 2007) when negotiations are continuing that may result in the system being changed.t The two elections Every voter can have two votes. He or she will be given two ballot papers (each a different colour). The one received first will look familiar to people who have voted before: it will contain the names of individual candidates for a particular geographical area (a constituency), with symbols against their name (symbol for their party, or just for the individual if that person has no party). And there is a box in which the voter will place a mark to indicate which person the voter wishes to be the member for that constituency. The person who wins will be the one who gets the most votes in that constituency. This is so even if the person gets less than half of the votes. This type of election is sometimes called "first past the post" - this suggests a race: the winner is the one who has the most votes, regardless of whether the next person is close or far behind, and even if more voters voted against the winner than for him or her. There are to be 240 members elected like this. There are a further 240 seats for members elected in the second ballot, which is the proportional representation ballot The second ballot paper contains a list of parties, each with its symbol, and a box for the voter's mark to indicate which party the voters chooses. The choice of party need having nothing to do with how the voter voted in the first election - so the voter could chose a candidate from a particular party, but vote for a completely different party in the second election. The votes for the parties are counted; the votes for the whole country are added up together. The percentage of the national vote that a party receives determines the percentage of the 240 PR seats the party receives. So a party that gets 36% of the national vote would get 36% of those 240 seats (86 seats). (There is actually a complex formula under the Election Act to work out how many seats each party gets, but the individual voter need not worry about this - but you can read about this here, if you wish). Who are the people who will fill those seats? Each party must have a list of candidates, and this will be published before the election. After the election enough people will be taken from the list to fill the seats. The voters should know whose names are on the list - though the actual names will not be on the ballot paper. And the voters will not be able to make any decision about who should be on the list, or in what order. In fact the names on the party's list will not be in order of preference - the choice of which individual from the list to choose is up to the party after the election results come out. Every party does not have to participate in both elections. A party might choose to contest only some, or all, of the geographical constituencies. Or it might choose to contest only the PR election. There is a rule to stop really tiny parties contesting the second election - any party that contests it must have at least 24 names on its list. No individual person may be a candidate for both elections - which may persuade small parties to concentrate on one or the other election. Proportionality How "proportionate" will the result be? In term of proportion between a party's vote and its number of seats, it will be imperfectly proportionate. This is because when the seats are allocated on the basis of the second election results, no account will be taken of the number of seats a party obtained in the geographical elections. Another method, used in Germany and New Zealand, for example, would adjust the numbers of seats under the second election - and could have been very close to fully proportionate. When the Maoists say they want a "proportionate election system" this is presumably because they do not expect to do well in the geographical constituencies and would like all the seats to be allocated on the basis of parties' overall election support. Inclusion The aspect that has caused the most controversy has been "inclusion" - how to ensure that the membership of the Constituent Assembly reflects the nation, particularly how to ensure that groups that have not been represented in the past are represented in the Constituent Assembly. Is it possible to have at least one person from each caste or ethnic group? Can women, who make up about 50% of the population, get about 50% of the seats (or at any rate get 33% of the seats)? And can the representation of other groups roughly reflect their presence in the population? The Interim Constitution and the Election Act use various phrases about inclusion and proportionality, but not all of them will have any real legal effect. (At the time of writing the Constituent Assembly Election Act is no longer available on the Election Commission website). Though parties are supposed to respect the principle of inclusion when they choose candidates for the first election it is not easy to see how this can be practically enforced. Even if parties do choose a wider range of candidates than in the past, these may not be given any real chance, because they may be put in constituencies where the party expects to lose anyway. Another problem about the geographical constituencies is that they are very different sizes in different parts of the country. This means that in one constituency only about 11,000 voters might elect a member while in another nearly 90,000 might do so. People in the Terai complained that this particularly disadvantaged them. Following negotiations between the Madhesis and the government the Interim Constitution was amended to provide that there should be some redrawing of constituencies and some new constituencies. The main intention was to redress this balance. But Madhesis complained that the way the new boundaries have been drawn will make it too easy for hill people living in the Madhes to win in many seats. A revised version of the boundary delimitation report has been submitted to government in accordance with the Interim Constitution provisions (read the relevant Article in English or Nepali). For the latest available information on the website of the Election Commission click here: निर्वाचन आयोगलाई नेपाल सरकार मार्फत प्राप्त निर्वाचन क्षेत्र निर्धारण आयोग, २०६३ को पुनरावलोकन प्रतिवेदनमा आधारित निर्वाचन क्षेत्रहरुको विवरण The list election is different. Here parties must include in their list people from various specified groups. So 31.2% must be Madhesi, 37.8% janjati, 13% dalits, 4% from backward regions and 30.2% others. In each group 50% must be women. Backward regions means Achaham, Kalikot, Jajrkot, Jumla, Dolpa, Bajahang, Bajura, Muga and Humla Districts. Why do these various numbers add up to more than 100%? Because the list may include a person who is a Madheshi janjati or a dalit from a backward region for example. Such a person would appear twice on the list. When the party submits its list to the Election Commission it must indicate for each candidate which category or categories the person fits into, and what sex they are. The Election Commission can send back a list that does not meet the requirements. The requirements about quotas apply to all parties - so even a party with a special interest in the rights of women, or Madhesis, for example, would have to have candidates and fill its seats in accordance with the quota rules. However, there is a rule to make things easier for smaller parties that do not put forward a very long list of candidates (not more than 47 names); such a party except that it must still have 50% women. When the votes are counted the parties must fill the seats, if any, to which it is entitled. But the seats must be filled in the same way as the list was compiled - using the same percentages. But there is a little flexibility - each group may be up 10% larger or 10% smaller than the strict percentage. So dalits could be between 11.7% and 14.3% of a party's list members. Women could be between 45 and 55%. How far will the results be proportionate to ethnicity etc? It is really impossible to tell how far the make-up of the whole Constituent Assembly will be proportionate because no-one knows yet how many non-traditional candidates will be chosen by parties and win in the first election. So even if 13% of the seats under the second election are held by dalits, which is the aim of the Election Act, if there are no dalits elected for geographical constituencies only 6.5% of the seats overall will be held by dalits. The same is true for the other groups. Another source of uncertainty is the possibility of there being a number of parties that win only a few seats in the second election. A party with only two seats might select from its list one male Madeshi janjati and one female dalit from Jumla (50% women, 50% Madhesi, 50% janjati, 50% dalit and 50% from a Backward region and no "others"). On the face of it, this would violate the quota rules because apart from women every group would be over-represented; but this is inevitable where there are only 2 members). But the party might choose from its list one male Madhesi (neither janjati nor dalit) and one female Bahun or Chhetri (other). A party that is entitled to only 3 or 4 seats might argue that it does not have to have any dalits. Any party with less than 25 seats might argue that it does not have to have any person from a backward region. The phrase "others' is a bit confusing. At one point it was thought that this meant other disadvantaged or underrepresented groups, and that maybe persons with disability, or Muslims, might be included. But, in the version of the Election Bill that was passed, the meaning of "others" is "anyone who does not fit any of the other descriptions". In other words, anyone who is not a janjati, dalit, Madhesi or person from a backward region. This seems to mean now Hill Bahun/Chhetris not from a Backward Region. So Bahun/Chhetris are guaranteed 30.2% of the PR seats + 10% for each party. It should mean that they get no more than this - but the "Backward region" 4% might also inflate the Bahun/Chhetri figures (but only to a very limited extent). If the parties are not successful (or do not try very hard) in getting successful ‘non-traditional' candidates in the geographical constituencies the overall percentage of Bahun/Chhetris may still be very high. Women: How far will the Constituent Assembly composition be proportionate? Though a party may be able to have no dalit candidates in the geographical constituencies it cannot behave the same way with women. Counting both elections together, 33% of the candidates must be women. Half the list members for a party must be women, so that party must still have about 17% women among its geographical constituency candidates in order to achieve 33% over all. But will they be placed in winnable constituencies? The position of women is stronger in the second election. For most readers this discussion has probably been quite complicated enough. But there are a few other points - for which click here. To summarise:
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